Patrick Mahomes has established himself as one of the most successful quarterbacks in the NFL in his young career. At just 27 years old, he already has an NFL MVP award, Super Bowl championship and numerous individual records to his name. So what separates Mahomes from his peers and allows him to consistently make jaw-dropping plays that few other quarterbacks can replicate? Much of his success hinges on his uncanny ability to read opposing defenses before the snap and identify the best routes to exploit them on any given play.

Mahomes has a preternatural gift for dissecting defensive schemes and personnel in the seconds before the snap. With the football still in the referee’s hands, Mahomes is already diagnosing the defense and determining how best to attack it. Through meticulous film study, Mahomes has an encyclopedic knowledge of defensive tendencies and is able to recognize formations, coverages and blitz packages almost instantly based on the positioning and movements of just a few key players.

Formation Recognition

One of the first things Mahomes keys in on at the line of scrimmage is the defensive formation – how many down linemen, linebackers and defensive backs are aligned where. By identifying the basic formation, he can start to deduce the overall scheme the defense intends to run on that particular play. For example, seeing four defensive linemen and two linebackers often indicates a basic 4-3 base defense that will likely run zone coverage. Spotting an extra defensive back instead of a linebacker is a telltale sign of nickel or dime subpackages, which usually correlates to more aggressive man coverage.

Keying Defensive Personnel

Rather than scanning the entire defense, Mahomes has learned to focus on just a few players whose pre-snap alignments and movements often reveal the coverage. Two players he keys in on above all others are the safeties. If either safety aligns over the slot receiver or creeps towards the line of scrimmage, Mahomes knows there’s a good chance it’s man coverage. But if the safeties drop deep towards the middle or one side of the field after the snap, zone coverage is highly likely. He also watches cornerbacks closely – if they’re pressed tight up on receivers at the line, it’s usually man. Backpedaling off the line hints at zone.

To determine potential blitzes or run fits, Mahomes pays close attention to the defensive linemen and linebackers in the trenches. Slanted or looping alignments could indicate a blitz is coming from an unexpected angle. Linemen rushing straight upfield or linebackers crashing the line often portends run defense. But if the defensive front drops into space, it creates opportunities for quick passes. By reading the pre-snap footwork and positioning of these players, Mahomes gets advanced warning of pressure versus coverage looks.

Hot Routes

With his pre-snap reads complete, Mahomes then determines the “hot route” or alternative option for each receiver based on the revealed coverage. For example, if he sees single-high safety looks indicating possible man coverage, his hot read may become a slant route that can exploit soft spots in the defense. Or against zone, hot routes like option routes, crossers or angle routes allow receivers to sit down in open areas. Mahomes communicates these hot routes nonverbally at the line of scrimmage so the play can be adjusted immediately after the snap without an audible.

A prime example of Mahomes’ pre-snap mastery came in a 2018 game against the Denver Broncos. Facing a 3rd and 5, the Broncos showed a dime defense with six defensive backs. But Mahomes noticed the slot corner and safety were playing too far off the line of scrimmage, a telltale sign of zone coverage. His hot read was a quick slant to Tyreek Hill. Sure enough, at the snap Hill ran a sharp slant, Mahomes delivered a precise pass, and Hill picked up an easy first down, all based on Mahomes’ pre-snap read.

Another instance came against the San Francisco 49ers in 2019. On 2nd and 10, Mahomes recognized the 49ers were in an odd front with an extra defensive back. But the safeties were playing deep, so he knew zone was likely. His hot route was for Travis Kelce to sit down in the middle hole of the zone. At the snap, Kelce sat as anticipated and Mahomes immediately hit him for a 15-yard gain. These are just two of countless examples of Mahomes deciphering defenses in a split second and exploiting them with pinpoint accuracy.

While other quarterbacks may also make pre-snap reads, few do so with Mahomes’ level of speed, accuracy and ability to process myriad variables simultaneously. He leaves no detail unnoticed, from the shading of a linebacker to the depth of a safety 10 yards away. And through thousands of practice reps, his mental library of defensive tendencies allows him to almost instantly match a formation to a coverage without conscious thought. It’s this pre-snap mastery that gives Mahomes such an advantage over opposing defenses and creates big plays even before the ball is snapped.

To further enhance his pre-snap acumen, Mahomes studies defensive film with almost obsessive focus. He maintains detailed notebooks cataloging every team’s favorite pressures, coverages and tendencies based on down, distance, hash and other situational factors. He cross-references this information with the specific players on the field to gain an edge. During games, Mahomes also relies on non-verbal communication with his receivers to alert them to hot routes against disguised coverages. All this advanced preparation allows him to consistently outthink defenses before they even show their hand.

While arm talent and athleticism allow Mahomes to make highlight-reel plays, his pre-snap recognition is the engine that drives his uncanny success. It gives him a head start in dissecting the defense that few quarterbacks can match. And with his football IQ and work ethic, Mahomes’ mastery of pre-snap reads will only continue improving. As long as he retains this gift, combined with his other elite skills, Mahomes will remain the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL for opposing defenses to game plan against. His unparalleled success stems directly from his ability to read what defenses are doing before they do it.