LeBron JamesAAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

For as much as people keep pooh-poohing the 2024 NBA free agency class, this year’s group enters the market at a time that lends itself to fireworks.

Harsher restrictions placed upon teams that cross the first and second aprons are taking full effect just as the Association prepares to ink new national TV contracts that should ensure maximum salary-cap growth over the next few years. This confluence of circumstances creates an interesting push-and-pull.

Will squads tighten purse strings in contract negotiations as they prioritize flexibility beneath the aprons over future years? Or does the promise of a mushrooming salary cap prompt them to conduct business as usual, if not warm up to longer-term agreements at max and near-max price points?

Basically, what the 2024 free-agency class lacks in star power and marquee goners, it makes up for with across-the-board unpredictability. These predictions will steer into those murky waters.

Prospective flight risks are part of the calculus, but this exercise will mostly try to map out contractual outcomes.

Immanuel Quickley Signs an Offer Sheet with Another Team

 

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Restricted free agency feels like it has toned down over the years. Since incumbent teams have the right to match any offer sheet their own players receive, outside admirers seem less inclined to tie up cap space (albeit briefly) on someone whom they won’t actually land.

This summer is shaping up to be an exception. A handful of notable restricted free agents—Isaac Okoro, Obi Toppin, Patrick Williams, just to name a few—have undefined markets. This is to say, they are neither no-brainer max or near-max guys (like Tyrese Maxey) nor lower-profile players unlikely to garner a ton of interest.

Immanuel Quickley stands out from the field. After Maxey, who is a virtual lock to re-sign with the Philadelphia 76ers on a max deal, Quickly is clearly the best available RFA. But he also isn’t necessarily in line for superstar money.

A four-year max from the Toronto Raptors would be worth $157.9 million, with a five-year max checking in at $204.5 million. If they offer him either deal out of the gate, yours truly will be shocked.

At the same time, can we really rule out a rival team attempting to come over the top and force Toronto into an expensive, potentially uncomfortable decision? Absolutely not.

As a soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive worker bee with off-the-bounce shot-making chops and developing vision when he maintains his dribble, Quickley fits almost any roster and timeline. That includes just about every cap-space squad.

One of them stands out in particular: The Orlando Magic. They have a choose-your-own adventure cap sheet that would allow them to rather easily offer Quickley a full max (four years, $151.6 million). That’s not to say they will—or should. They can come in with something that’s still ultra-aggressive but below the max.

The same goes for the Detroit Pistons, who could have over $60 million in cap space. It also goes for the Utah Jazz, who can crank their spending power north of $30 million if they don’t renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen.

Ditto for the Charlotte Hornets, who will sniff the $30 million threshold if they let Miles Bridges leave. Even the San Antonio Spurs, who have around $20 million with which to play, can enter the fold if they offload some other money (think: Zach Collins or Keldon Johnson).

In other words, Quickley should have a market outside Toronto. And though the Raptors figure to match pretty much any offer he receives, the ambiguity tied to his price point increases the likelihood that they’ll let the outside market determine how much he gets.

Paul George Picks Up His Player Option

 

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Paul George picking up his $48.8 million player option would suggest that he’s leaving the Los Angeles Clippers. And, well, he might.

Opting in allows him to broaden his market to teams that don’t have the available cap space to max him out. (So, everyone other than the Sixers.) Granted, he shouldn’t make that decision without first looping in the Clippers themselves. The absence of collaboration can backfire or just get ridiculously, grotesquely messy. (See: James Harden circa 2023).

If George picks up his player option, expect self-proclaimed dot-connectors to run amok with “insight.” Scenarios that see him end up in Philadelphia, New York, Orlando, Indiana, Oklahoma City, CSKA Moskow, et al. will inundate your timelines and banner notifications.

Opting in could absolutely spell George’s exit. I’m just not prepared to go that far.

The idea of the Clippers losing George as they prepare to open up the Intuit Dome and just saw Kawhi Leonard finish yet another postseason on the injury report is too surreal for me to wrap my head around. Even if they re-sign James Harden, as expected, PG’s exit looms as a nightmare scenario for a team without financial flexibility or a wealth of trade assets.

So, perhaps this all ends with George opting in and extending off his 2024-25 salary. Or maybe this decision really would guarantee his departure. In that case, at least the Clippers would be able to capitalize on his leaving. Teams over the second apron cannot take back any players when they sign-and-trade their own free agents. That restriction wouldn’t apply if George opts in and intends to extend with his new team.

Regardless of how PG’s future plays out, let’s go ahead and assume it starts with him picking up his player option. Unless he and the Clippers find the common ground that’s eluded them all year, this path would offer him the widest range of possibilities.

OG Anunoby Re-Signs with New York for Less Than the Max

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This won’t register as a spicy prediction on its face. OG Anunoby is the quintessential really-good-not-great player. Plenty of armchair general managers will flinch at the prospect of giving a non-star his max salary ($42.3 million in Year 1).

However, there should be a max market for Anunoby. Five-position defenders with a viable three-point stroke who can sometimes bust out some derring-do on straight-line drives are beyond coveted, even when they come with one of the most all-over-the-place injury histories in the league.

Three teams project to have the cap space to throw max money Anunoby’s way: Detroit, Orlando and Philadelphia. The Sixers and Pistons likely won’t hesitate to pay him if they’re presented with the opportunity to do so. The Magic need more creation than he provides, but they’d probably do it, too.

At least two other suitors are a salary-dump away from OG’s max and fall under the same “They’d Totally Do It” bucket: Oklahoma City and Utah. This says nothing of the teams that would gladly engage in sign-and-trade talks with the New York Knicks and pony up the max as part of those negotiations.

Still, there’s just something about this iteration of the Orange and Blue. It isn’t scientific. Or even describable. It’s just…something—a camaraderie, a togetherness, a likability that transcends business as usual.

Josh Hart opted in and extended last summer, affording the Knicks the flexibility to bring in Donte DiVincenzo for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Jalen Brunson reportedly may sign a wildly below-market extension (four years, $156.5 million) rather than explore free agency in 2025 (player option), when he could be eligible for a five-year, $269.9 million deal.

Let’s also not forget the circumstances under which Anunoby arrived in New York. The Knicks’ package was far from nothing. It was also beatable. Sure, the Raptors could have just preferred returns built around players rather than picks. But accepting RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and what became the No. 31 pick could have something to do with Anunoby’s desire to be in New York and the tepid alternative market it created as a result.

Whatever the case, I’m penciling Anunoby in for a pay grade below the max. Whether it’s to help the Knicks navigate the first and second aprons in the pursuit of a big-time trade, as part of an agreement that lets him re-explore the open market sooner or both, the starting salary on his next contract will be closer to $35 million than $40 million.

Pascal Siakam Gets a 5-Year Max from Indiana Without Any Options

 

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On FanDuel TV’s Run It Back, Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported that the Indiana Pacers are “preparing” a max-contract offer for Pascal Siakam. That makes sense.

The Pacers presumably didn’t fork over three first-rounders to land Siakam just so they could later draw a hardline in contract talks. Though his market may not be as robust as the list of suitors for Paul George or OG Anunoby, Siakam is good enough to fetch out max-contract overtures (four years, $181.9 million) elsewhere.

But there are a number of different ways to decode the Pacers’ max-contract preparations. They could be ready to offer him a four-year deal worth $189.5 million. They could agree to a shorter-term pact that gets Siakam back on the market when he’s eligible to sign a 10-year veteran max that begins at 35 percent of the salary cap. They could propose a five-year max with a team option or partial guarantee on the fifth season.

Or they could do what I’m predicting: sign Siakam to a five-year, $245.3 million max contract that runs through his age-34 season.

People will inevitably rage against this forecast and, if it happens, the transaction itself. They shouldn’t. The Pacers have long valued stability. Flipping so much draft equity for Siakam, however modest it turns out to be, was out of character in itself.

Locking Siakam down alongside Tyrese Haliburton for the duration of his prime, even if he peaks before deal’s end, would allow Indy to chart out a years-long course without the threat of disruption. Where some might view the absence of an option, early out or shorter agreement as a whiff, the Pacers will see it as long-term security. And the post-TV-deal salary cap should assuage any fears they have about sustaining a competitive supporting cast around two max players.

Siakam should have a similar impression of the five-year, no-option max. It would preclude him from re-entering a more lucrative market anytime soon, but even with a rising cap, the chances of him bagging a multiyear max at the age of, say, 31 or 32 don’t seem particularly high.

Truth be told, a four-year max or five-year agreement worth less than the max on an average annual basis may be the more likely outcome. But the door for a full-boat max should register as more of a distinct possibility when factoring in the ascending cap and the assets that Indy has already invested in Siakam.

What sometimes projects as the least likely route actually feels like a nice middle ground.

LeBron James Declines His Player Option and Then…

 

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LeBron James stands to make the most possible money if he picks up his player option and signs an extension with the Los Angeles Lakers. Going that route would put him on the books for a total of three years (including next season) and $164.3 million.

If LeBron declines his player option, re-signing with the Lakers on a three-year deal would net him $159.9 million. The difference is negligible in billionaire-speak. But James doesn’t pay for Spotify Premium, so he figures to care about an extra $4.4 million-ish.

So, why opt out and sign a new deal for less overall money? To keep pressure on the Lakers front office to make moves over the offseason? To genuinely explore his other options? To give First Take more LeBron James content?

Any of the above reasons could apply. In my head, they won’t. Opting out will be all about joining the Bradley Beal club: getting a no-trade clause.

Only players with at least eight years of experience who have logged four-plus seasons with their current team are eligible for no-trade clauses. LeBron comfortably meets that criteria. And because no-trade clauses cannot be negotiated into extensions for contracts that don’t already have them, opting out and signing a new deal is the only way for him to get one.

Gaining that level of indefinite agency over his future is well worth the few million bucks LeBron would be forgoing. The Lakers probably wouldn’t deal him anywhere that didn’t receive his stamp of approval, if they’d even trade him at all. But LeBron might as well formalize that power and increase his year-to-year leverage with an official no-trade clause.