The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone, with the Chiefs coming away big winners with a slew of exciting draft picks and smart moves.
They’ve been busy signing undrafted free agents as well, so it appears Kansas City’s roster will once again be loaded as the organization tries to win a historic third straight Super Bowl.
Some players, like Texas WR Xavier Worthy, figure to make immediate impacts, though some later-round selections could find significant playing time too.
That means some Chiefs might be on their way off the roster, especially if this draft class is as promising at it appears to be. With that in mind, let’s look at several players on thin ice following the draft.
Lucas Niang already faced an uphill battle toward making a big contribution, and the Chiefs’ actions in the draft prove they don’t envision much of a future for Niang with the club. Kansas City drafted three offensive linemen, including BYU OT Kingsley Suamataia, who all displayed versatility in college that will endear them to the coaching staff.
While Niang has suited up frequently for the Chiefs over the last three years, he hasn’t seen significant snaps since 2021. This is the final year of his rookie contract, so this is likely his final chance to prove he belongs on the roster moving forward.
The 2020 third-round pick has plenty of experience with this coaching staff, and he might even be the true backup right tackle to Jawaan Taylor at this point. Even if that’s the case though, Suamataia and Wanya Morris are younger, more promising players.
Fifth-round selection Hunter Nourzad has some experience at tackle too. The Chiefs emphasized reworking the offensive line depth in this draft, likely an indication they intend to move on from Niang after this season.
The Chiefs are telling us with their words that they still believe in Kadarius Toney, yet their actions represent something else entirely. Xavier Worthy is not only a dynamic talent at wide receiver, but it sounds like Dave Toub may want to use the Texas speedster in the return game too.
Toney’s most significant contributions as a Chief have come in special teams, notably setting a Super Bowl record with a 65-yard punt return to help Kansas City beat Philadelphia. If he falls behind Worthy in the return depth chart, it’s hard to see where Toney’s opportunities will come from.
Perhaps Toney gets a long look at receiver during Rashee Rice’s likely suspension, though he’s on a notably short leash either way.
Toney’s time with in Kansas City, thus far, has been shrowded in “what-if” situations outside of the magical punt return. If he’s not able to carve out a role in a suddenly-crowded receiver room, it’s hard to imagine Brett Veach signing the former first-round pick to an extension this offseason.
At best, Toney projects to be the fifth or sixth receiver entering camp. Few players possess his level of talent, but he’s got a long way to go in properly utilizing it.
2. Kadarius Toney – WR
The Chiefs are telling us with their words that they still believe in Kadarius Toney, yet their actions represent something else entirely. Xavier Worthy is not only a dynamic talent at wide receiver, but it sounds like Dave Toub may want to use the Texas speedster in the return game too.
Toney’s most significant contributions as a Chief have come in special teams, notably setting a Super Bowl record with a 65-yard punt return to help Kansas City beat Philadelphia. If he falls behind Worthy in the return depth chart, it’s hard to see where Toney’s opportunities will come from.
Perhaps Toney gets a long look at receiver during Rashee Rice’s likely suspension, though he’s on a notably short leash either way.
Toney’s time with in Kansas City, thus far, has been shrowded in “what-if” situations outside of the magical punt return. If he’s not able to carve out a role in a suddenly-crowded receiver room, it’s hard to imagine Brett Veach signing the former first-round pick to an extension this offseason.
At best, Toney projects to be the fifth or sixth receiver entering camp. Few players possess his level of talent, but he’s got a long way to go in properly utilizing it.
3. Noah Gray – TE
Noah Gray has become a reliable weapon for Patrick Mahomes as Travis Kelce’s primary backup over the last few years, but he’s entering the last year of his contract and Kansas City just drafted promising receiving tight end Jared Wiley to serve as Kelce’s understudy.
A 2021 fifth-round pick, Gray had a career-high 305 receiving yards last year with a pair of TDs and caught eight passes throughout the playoff run. He’s a solid No. 2 option at the position with a keen understanding of Andy Reid’s offensive scheme, though the writing is on the wall regarding his future unless Wiley quickly proves to be a bust.
While Blake Bell is still a free agent and unlikely to return, the Chiefs signed pass-catching threat Irv Smith Jr. in the offseason. Between Smith Jr. and Wiley, Gray has ample competition moving forward.
Gray is still Kelce’s backup for the time being. I don’t expect Wiley to overtake Gray immediately, but he could prove to be a more versatile and dangerous weapon once the playoffs roll around.
If Wiley didn’t show so much promise as a long-term Kelce replacement, I’d be more confident that Gray gets an extension after this year. Perhaps he still does, though he’s on thin ice nonetheless given the Chiefs’ moves over the last couple of months.
4. Skyy Moore – WR
Skyy Moore is in a similar boat to Kadarius Toney. He missed the end of last season with an injury and was disappointing when on the field, paving the way for other wide receivers to potentially take his job.
Through two seasons, the former second-round pick has only 494 receiving yards and one TD. Those aren’t encouraging numbers given the draft capital the Chiefs used to require him. Barring a dramatic turnaround in training camp, Moore will enter the season as the fourth or fifth receiver on the depth chart with an uphill climb to true contribution.
We’ve seen examples in the past of receivers needing a few years to catch up to NFL game speed, and maybe Moore will be another guy who just takes longer to develop. He played against mediocre competition at Western Michigan in college, so it makes sense that his stellar separating ability didn’t immediately translate.
However, the Chiefs are trying to three-peat and make NFL history. They don’t have the luxury of patience to let Moore keep working through his mistakes and he’s obviously failed to earn Mahomes’ trust through two seasons.
Similar to Toney, Moore should have an opportunity to correct past mistakes while Rice is suspended, though I don’t imagine he’ll get many chances.
5. Wanya Morris – LT
The selection of Kingsley Suamataia is terrible news for Lucas Niang, but it’s a bad sign for 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris as well. Morris had an opportunity to take over as the left tackle of the future with Donovan Smith heading to free agency, though Suamataia now provides stiff competition for that spot.
Suamataia wasted no time in letting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs know they made the right pick, and Mahomes sounds excited to have the hulking BYU lineman potentially protecting his blindside.
That same level of excitement hasn’t been extended to Morris. Veach made it clear that this would be a fair competition as well.
Whether or not Morris earns the starting gig, he’s an ideal backup tackle capable of playing on either side if necessary. He likely had bigger expectations entering his rookie year, especially after he fared well starting in Smith’s place at the end of the year, but he hasn’t shown the ceiling that Suamataia can provide.
Given the upcoming contract negotiations for Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and potentially Joe Thuney, Kansas City needs young, team-friendly contracts wherever possible on the line.
Suamataia can provide a higher ceiling with an extra year of club control, giving him an advantage over Morris.
6. Justin Reid – S
Let me be explicitly clear that Justin Reid has been great with the Chiefs and is clearly the best safety on the roster as it stands. He’s been invaluable to the defense during these consecutive Super Bowl runs, bringing a defining physicality to the secondary that’s helped give Kansas City the NFL’s best defense.
That being said, it looks like the Chiefs are preparing to eventually move on. Reid is entering the final year of his three-year contract and is only 27 years old, so he’ll likely require another hefty payday if he returns.
2022 second-round pick Bryan Cook is on track to return from his broken ankle and the Chiefs just made a fantastic fourth-round selection by taking Washington State safety Jaden Hicks. That gives the organization two exciting, young safeties who could theoretically step into starting roles, giving Brett Veach financial flexibility if he’s reluctant to give Reid another big payday.
Veach has never given a second contract to a member of the secondary. We’ve seen players like Charvarius Ward, Tyrann Mathieu, and L’Jarius Sneed all walk, so Reid could be next in line.
Once you consider the large number of young players that’ll need contracts, including All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie, it’s easy to imagine Reid being the odd man out given the preparations the Chiefs have already begun making.
Could Reid force Veach’s hand with a stellar season as the vocal leader of the secondary? He could, but I’m not betting on it at this point.
